To get an understanding of the differences in viewing patterns and volumes when it comes to real-time ratings and on-demand platform viewership, this analysis takes data from Video Research's (VR) household real-time ratings for the Kanto region and TVer's quarterly release of its top 20 most-viewed shows on its portal. The reasons why these two sources were chosen are that VR's data has been the go-to standard for audience measurement of TV and radio shows while TVer is a free portal owned jointly by the 5 key TV networks and provides titles from all of them. 7 seasons' worth of data from Winter 2023 to the recently concluded Summer 2024 were used for the purpose of this analysis.
Let's begin by looking at some interesting observations over the 7 seasons in question:
- "VIVANT" was the only drama in the 7 seasons which took top place in terms of real-time ratings and on-demand views.
There were also some unusual examples like "Brush up life" which got No.10 in terms of real-time ratings but was No.1 for on-demand views, "Sayonara Maestro" which was No.1 on TV but No.10 on TVer and "Anata ga shitekure nakutemo" which was No.1 on TVer but nowhere to be seen in the real-time top 10 ranking for the season.
What this suggests is that what works well in terms of attracting viewers to tune in real-time may not be the same for on-demand platforms.
- Nowadays, even if a drama does not get a double-digit average rating for the entire season, there is still a likelihood for it to be the No.1 drama of that season if the competition isn't stiff. Examples would be "Keishicho Outsider" (9.49%) and "Gekokujou Kyuuji" (9.63%). Coincidentally or not, these two dramas were shown during the colder seasons i.e. Winter 2023 and Autumn 2023 which were said to be "good seasons" for TV dramas since people tended to stay home more when it was cold.
And the summer season which was usually seen as a "dumping ground" for dramas since people would be out holidaying during the summer vacation, saw "VIVANT" buck the trend by being the highest rated in these 7 seasons with 14.26%.
Goes to show that weather or the season is no longer a key determinant of a drama's success in terms of real-time ratings?
- To make it to the top 10 dramas of the season in terms of real-time ratings, the average qualifying score is 7.24% which was what most top 5 dramas of the season would exceed. However, in actual fact, out of the 70 dramas in this analysis, 42 actually didn't cross this bar. The most extreme example would be the Autumn 2023 where only the top 2 exceeded this figure.
In addition, the gap between the No.1 and No.10 dramas were around the 5% mark with the least difference seen in Winter 2023 - "Keishicho Outsider" vs. "Brush up life" (3.26%) and the most difference in Summer 2023 - "VIVANT" vs. "CODE" (9.12%).
What this suggests is that the margin between the dramas outside the top 3 tends to be very small but their gaps with the top contenders is comparatively wider.
- In terms of views on TVer, the average "passing mark" to make it to the top 10 is about 24 million views for the entire season. However, depending on the competitive landscape for that season, the number of views needed to become No.1 differed greatly.
"Brush up life" managed to get No.1 with 30.72 million views while "Futekisetsu nimo hodo ga aru!" got its title with 33.42 million views. However, "Destiny" easily got the same position with just 28.84 million views.
On the other hand, "Anata ga shitekure nakutemo" and "VIVANT" got No.1 with 54.81 million views, "Ichiban suki na hana" got 40.26 million views but "Umi no hajimari" was far ahead of its competition with a whooping 71.48 million views. This was more than double of the second-placed "Otto no katei wo kowasu made" at 32.58 million views!
As for the cut-off point on the lower end of the ranking, it took "Reversal Orchestra" just 12.88 million views to enter the top 10 but "Kururi" and "Minami-kun no koibito" needed more than 18 million views to scrape through since most of the top 10 titles for their respective seasons were above 20 million views.
And here are the details for the 7 seasons who are interested:
While it may be difficult to quantify and set a standard criteria to determine a drama's success in terms of TV ratings and on-demand views for now, it is no longer possible for content producers like TV stations to ignore the latter market and be hung up over real-time ratings only. Some dramas may have fared poorly on TV but still gained a lot of attention through their great numbers on on-demand platforms or being talked about online. As seen from the enormous number of views for some of the blockbuster hits in these seasons, it suggests that more consumers/viewers are making a conscious choice to watch what they want at their own convenience rather than be tied down by a fixed timeslot. And since there are more measurement metrics nowadays to judge whether a drama has performed well, it is probably time for the media as well to focus less on making a hoo-ha whenever a title expected to do well e.g. with a star-studded cast or big-time actor/actress as the lead suffers from poor real-time ratings.
Times have changed so the way we look at success has to evolve as well.
